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Minnesota Twins State Of The Union For 2014

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The Minnesota franchise has been through predicament before.  From 1987 - 1991, the club won World Series and was one of the best clubs in the timeframe, but this was followed by a losing stretch from 1993 - 2001.  The Twins then reeled off 6 Division Titles, and built a new baseball park from that success.  Now they have suffered 3 straight 90+ Loss seasons, and look to run into a 4th straight.

The Minnesota franchise has been through predicament before. From 1987 – 1991, the club won World Series and was one of the best clubs in the timeframe, but this was followed by a losing stretch from 1993 – 2001. The Twins then reeled off 6 Division Titles, and built a new baseball park from that success. Now they have suffered 3 straight 90+ Loss seasons, and look to run into a 4th straight.  The young pieces are there to turn this thing around in the next few years, however Miguel Sano went down to a season ending injury. while Alex Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia struggled in their Rookie Years.  Byron Buxton, the top Baseball prospect is also going through a minor injury ailment to his left wrist.  On a bright note, Kyle Gibson made the Starting Rotation.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

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Miguel Sano being hurt for the entire was a definite early downer to begin the spring.  This team still has many young new  core players, and have finally listed Kyle Gibson as a Starter in the Rotation in the #5 slot.

Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton may also provide a big splash to the franchise that is needed for many years moving forward.

You add in 3B Trevor Plouffe and SS/2B Brian Dozier possibly earning spots for the long-term, and the majority of their lineup with be made up from players from their early to mid – 20’s.

The year starts with Joe Mauer moving over to 1st, the departure of longtime veteran Justin Morneau, and 2 former players are trying to resurrect their careers with Minnesota.

Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett are both back in the Twin Cities trying to make the squad.

Perkins just inked a 4 YR deal worth nearly $23 MIL.  This contract is worth its merit when you consider he has worked 60+ games in each of the last 3 years, holding ERA's respectively 2.48, 2.56 and 2.30 ERA.  He has commanded the Strike Zone more with his WHIP rapidly declining in the same timeframe, 1.232, 1.038 - and a Career low 0.926 in 2013.   Add 36 Saves and an ALL - Star Appearance to the fold, and this guy had a great year.

Perkins just inked a 4 YR deal worth nearly $23 MIL. This contract is worth its merit when you consider he has worked 60+ games in each of the last 3 years, holding ERA’s respectively 2.48, 2.56 and 2.30 ERA. He has commanded the Strike Zone more with his WHIP rapidly declining in the same timeframe, 1.232, 1.038 – and a Career low 0.926 in 2013. Add 36 Saves and an ALL – Star Appearance to the fold, and this guy had a great year.

The franchise struggling for the last 3 years is to be expected after the club won 6 out of the previous 9 AL Central Titles.’

The Twins are doing the right thing in overhauling the whole roster, become younger and build up through the Minor League organization.

The team Starting Pitching Staff is 80% compromised of Free Agent Signings the club has made over the last few years.

Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia all have inked deals for this team.

The aforementioned Kyle Gibson has finally arrived on this team.

Kyle Gibson was the Twins top pitching prospect until he went down with Tommy John surgery. Since then he has been battling back on his journey to the big leagues. Before the injury he was widely considered to be ready for the majors.  Finally this spring he has earned a #5 Starting Spot in the Rotation.  As of right now, he is the only Starter out of the 5 that was drafted by the club.

Kyle Gibson was the Twins top pitching prospect until he went down with Tommy John surgery. Since then he has been battling back on his journey to the big leagues. Before the injury he was widely considered to be ready for the majors. Finally this spring he has earned a #5 Starting Spot in the Rotation. As of right now, he is the only Starter out of the 5 that was drafted by the club.

The Bullpen is the same story.  While Glen Perkins and Anthony Swarzak as the exceptions, most of the Relief Core was also signed via Free Agency, or acquired through waivers or the rule 5 Draft.

With 3 consecutive years with the club not reaching 70 Wins, you have to wonder if Manager Ron Gardenhire can make it through another year with a 4th in a row.

Yes his contract runs through the 2015 year, however teams generally do that so that their voice is stronger with the talent.

Skippers on the last year of their deals, are often referred to as “Lame Duck Managers.”

Ron Gardenhire and Tom Kelly have been the only 2 men to manage the Twins in the last 27 years.  Having stability in the Manager and GM position lends itself for a proper run franchise in terms of on the field success.  The Twins will give Gardenhire the chance to rebuild with this club yet again.  Stocked with several young prospects, we could the club turn around to be a contender again in the next few years.  There must be some improvement this year.  Gardenhire begins the year just 2 wins short of 1000 with 998 victories and a .513 Win Pctg for the Twins since the start of the 2002 year.

Ron Gardenhire and Tom Kelly have been the only 2 men to manage the Twins in the last 27 years. Having stability in the Manager and GM position lends itself for a proper run franchise in terms of on the field success. The Twins will give Gardenhire the chance to rebuild with this club yet again. Stocked with several young prospects, the club could turn around to be a contender again in the next few years. Will he last though? He begins the year just 2 wins short of 1000 with 998 victories and a .513 Win Pctg for the Twins since the start of the 2002 year.

The Offense – Starting Defensive positions

Bringing back Jason Kubel for the DH slot is a nice move.  He was one of the underrated Minny players when this team was winning AL Central Divisions.

It may be a stop gap measure, but he is one of those good organization guys that will also be good for the younger players, as he grew up playing the ‘Twins Way.’

The bench is young with experience and could struggle.  Another transition year is what it will be.

Josh Willingham is probably somewhere in the middle between his 2012 and 2013 campaigns.   i think he can hit about 25 HRs and drive in about 80+ Runs this year.

A contending team will be willing to trade assets to acquire him late in the year.  His contract would only call for about half of his potentially $8 MIL for 2014 (last year of his deal.)

Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are another year older, and should be better in 2014, however if they suffer a sophomore slump, they will turn into suspect really quick.

Arcia, to his credit, had 14 HRs and a .734 OPS for his 97 GP, however he must improve on his .253 BA and .304 OBP

He could smack 20 HRs and bat around .275 in 2014.

Hicks had a bad 1st campaign in the MLB.  He hit for a 3 Slash of .192/.259/.338.  A good year for the young CF, would be to hit for a better average – and possibly approach being a 20/20 guy.

Lineup (No particular order)

1B: Joe Mauer

C:  Kurt Suzuki

Suzuki is a nice veteran catcher to backstop the staff.  He at least can give you professional AB, with decent defense behind plate

Suzuki is a nice veteran catcher to backstop the staff. He at least can give you professional AB, with decent defense behind plate.

3B:  Trevor Plouffe

Plouffe should hit 20 HRs, and crack about 50 total Extra Base Hits if he can play a full year at the hot corner.

SS: Pedro Florimon

Great wizzard defender.  Has to work on his BA and plate discipline.  At 24, he joins many others in the core as around the same age.

2B: Brian Dozier

With 18 HRs and 66 RBI in 2013, this guy has some power out of the 2B position.  He may be another batter who can hit the 20 HR plateau.

LF: Josh Willingham

Willingham was one of the best bargains last year with 35 HRs (7th in AL), 110 RBI (3rd in AL) and an .890 OPS (8th in AL). Willingham's numbers netted him a Silver Slugger Award in the AL. 2013 wasn't as kind to the 34 Year Old, where he featured a 3 Slash of /208/.342/.709 - with just 14 HRs and 48 RBI.  Willingham's contract calls for him to be paid $7 MIL in 2014, although he can earn an additional $1 MIL if he can rack ip 525 PA.

Willingham was one of the best bargains in 2012 with 35 HRs (7th in AL), 110 RBI (3rd in AL) and an .890 OPS (8th in AL). Willingham’s numbers netted him a Silver Slugger Award in the AL. 2013 wasn’t as kind to the 34 Year Old, where he featured a 3 Slash of /208/.342/.367 – with just 14 HRs and 48 RBI. Willingham’s contract calls for him to be paid $7 MIL in 2014, although he can earn an additional $1 MIL if he can rack up 525 PA.  If the Twins aren’t near competition they can also parlay this asset for younger pieces coming back in return.

CF: Aaron Hicks

Buxton, the Twins' number 2 prospect, has a surplus amount of speed. Not only that, he has brought his bat around and is. His strong arm is going to create a lot of outfield assists for this kid in the future.  Buxton is listed as the #1 prospect in the MLB by Baseball America.  He suffered a small bruise on his left wrist, but an MRI revealed no permanent damage.  The club should let him season more in the Minors.  They should bring him up in June to avoid the 'Super 2' status for Arbitration.  This decision is much easier with Sano already out for the whole year.

Buxton, the Twins’ number 2 prospect, has a surplus amount of speed. Not only that, he has brought his bat around and is. His strong arm is going to create a lot of outfield assists for this kid in the future. Buxton is listed as the #1 prospect in the MLB by Baseball America. He suffered a small bruise on his left wrist, but an MRI revealed no permanent damage. The club should let him season more in the Minors. They should bring him up in June to avoid the ‘Super 2′ status for Arbitration. This decision is much easier with Sano already out for the whole year.

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

Jason Kubel was one of the better RBI OF/DH from 2009 - 2012,  with 375 RBI in only 2145 AB.  This works out to be about 100 RBI for every 600 AB.  This was great production yet he doesn't see that much respect.  Kubel should revel in coming back to the AL Central and with Minnesota  - where he can primarily DH.  Kubel has a Career 3 Slash of .264/.330/.455 - even though he was only .220/.288/.324this campaign.

Jason Kubel was one of the better RBI OF/DH from 2009 – 2012, with 375 RBI in only 2145 AB. This works out to be about 100 RBI for every 600 AB. This was great production yet he never did see that much respect. Kubel should revel in coming back to the AL Central and with Minnesota – where he can primarily DH – rather than play in the OF. Kubel has a Career 3 Slash of .264/.330/.455 – even though he was only .220/.288/.324 in the 2013 campaign, with 32 RBI in 241 AB.

DH: Jason Kubel

Bench:

Alex Presley OF, Chris Colabello 1B/DH, Utility Eduardo Escobar, Josmil Pinto, Chris Herrmann

Ricky Nolasco was 5-8 with a solid 3.85 ERA in 18 games started with the Miami Marlins before he was traded to the LA Dodgers.  After he was in California for 1 month, he was 5 - 0, with a 1.64 ERA.  A slower September resulted in a 6.66 ERA in 5 Game Starts.  He still had an 8 - 3 record, with a 3.52 ERA for LA.  For his career, Nolasco is 89 - 73, (.543) with a 4.37 ERA.  The Twins gave the Free Agent Pitcher a 4 YR deal worth $49 MIL to anchor the Starting Rotation,

Ricky Nolasco was 5-8 with a solid 3.85 ERA in 18 games started with the Miami Marlins before he was traded to the LA Dodgers. After he was in California for 1 month, he was 5 – 0, with a 1.64 ERA. A slower September resulted in a 6.66 ERA in 5 Game Starts. He still had an 8 – 3 record, with a 3.52 ERA for LA. For his career, Nolasco is 89 – 73, (.543) with a 4.37 ERA. The Twins gave the Free Agent Pitcher a 4 YR deal worth $49 MIL to anchor the Starting Rotation.  He may not be a #1 or even #2 Pitcher, but this guy will be competitive.

2013 Free Agents Nolasco and Hughes, join 2012 signings of Pelfrey and Correia in a mixed mash unit of Twins Pitching.

These guys are needed to provide as many Innings as possible to stave off the youngsters from throwing too many innings.

If any of them are able to hold their head above .500 for the year, I would be surprised.

None of these men represent what you want on playoffs teams for Starters, however they are capable of being #3 or #4 pitchers if they perform well.

The only guy who might have some extreme upside is Phil Hughes – who has to put his New York Days behind him, and it will surprise people to learn he is just 27 Years old.

This guy has all of the looks of a dominant pitcher, and he is the author of a 16 game and 18 game victory seasons in 2010 and 2012.

At worst, should he fail in during his tenure in the contract, Hughes also has a past as a great arm as a reliever, featuring a 2.06 ERA and a WHIP of 0.971 in 50 Appearances/56.2 IP.

Hughes was signed to a 3 YRs/24 Million Dollar Contract by the Twins.  The 27 Year Old from Mission Viejo, CA has a career record of 56 - 51, with a 4.54 ERA.  But you simply have to dig deeper to find out why he has struggled at points in his career.  He had horrific numbers at Yankee Stadium as opposed to his decent road numbers for his lifetime.

Hughes was signed to a 3 YRs/24 Million Dollar Contract by the Twins. The 27 Year Old from Mission Viejo, CA has a career record of 56 – 50, with a 4.54 ERA. But you simply have to dig deeper to find out why he has struggled at points in his career. He had horrific numbers at Yankee Stadium as opposed to his decent road numbers for his lifetime.  Last year, the big RHP was 1 – 10, with a 6.32 in New York’s home park, while he sported a 3 – 4 mark on the road, with a 3.88 ERA.

Rotation:

1. Ricky Nolasco

2. Kevin Correia

3. Mike Pelfrey

4. Phil Hughes

5. Kyle Gibson

6. Scott Diamond

The Relievers on the Twins didn’t fare too bad in 2013, with awesome jobs done by Glen Perkins and Cale Thielbar (1.76 ERA and a 0.826 WHIP in 46 IP.)

Other good work was done by Long man, Swarzak, who lugged 98 IP and a nice 2.91 ERA in 48 Games Played.

Long-term starting veterans Deduno, Duensing and Diamond may see more work of the of the Bullpen – and could work and swingmen between the Relief Core and Starting Rotation.

Relievers

Glen Perkins

Jared Burton

Brian Duensing

Casey Fien

Anthony Swarzak

Caleb Thielbar

Ryan Pressly

Samuel Deduno

With all of the uncertainty, with mounting injuries to their young core prospects, I don’t think the club will improve much (if at all in 2014).

I project this club to win between 66 – 69 games.  Trade Correia, Suzuki and Willingham for younger players in July.

Also do not fire Ron Gardenhire.  He didn’t turn stupid overnight, and was part of the coaching staff, mentoring the millennium core of players to 6 division titles in 9 years once he took over as manager.

Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer were the heart of the Minnesota Twins. Between the two they had two MVPs, ten All-Star Game appearances, and six Silver Slugger Awards. With Morneau now gone to Colorado, Mauer brings his (Active  Career MLB Leading) BA of .323 added with a .405 OBP and .468 to 1B.  Mauer should nearly match his lifetime OPS of .873 - and if he plays for the full campaign, he should club about 60 Extra Base Hits.

Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer were the heart of the Minnesota Twins. Between the two they had two MVPs, ten All-Star Game appearances, and seven Silver Slugger Awards. With Morneau now gone to Colorado, Mauer brings his (Active Career MLB Leading) BA of .323 added with a .405 OBP and .468 SLG to 1B. Mauer should nearly match his lifetime OPS of .873 – and if he plays for the full campaign, he should club about 60 Extra Base Hits.  The Minnesota native is still signed through the next five years, and at nearly age 31, he will be the elder statesman of a young core of players.  The club is doing the right thing in placing him away from the Catchers position.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***

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Tagged: 1965 World Series, 1987 WORLD SERIES, 1991 World Series, 1B Chris Colabello, 3B: Trevor Plouffe, @MLBreports on twitter, al central, C Eric Fryer, C Joe Mauer, C/DH Ryan Doumit, CF Alex Presley, chris sale, Chuck Booth. fastest 30 ballgames, CL Glen Perkins, INF Brian Dozier, INF Eduardo Escobar, james shields, jason bartlett, jason kubel, johan santana, OF Aaron Hicks, OF Clete Thomas, OF Josh Willingham, of Oswaldo Arcia, phil hughes, RF Chris Parmelee, ricky nolasco, ron gardenhire, RP Ryan Pressly, RP: Anthony Swarzak, RP: Casey Fien, RP: Jared Burton, RP: Josh Roenicke, SP Kevin Correia, SP Kyle Gibson, SP Liam Hendriks, SP Mike Pelfrey, SP Sam Deduno, SP Vance Worley, SP: Andrew Albers, SP: Brian Duensing, SP: Cole De Vries, SP: Scott Diamond, SS Pedro Florimon, target field, tom kelly, UT Chris Herrmann, UT Darin Mastroianni, washington senators

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